Application of Discrete Time Markov Chain to a Population Case Study in Japan

Abstract

The population problem in Japan is considered an urgent issue due to low birth rates, a high increase in life expectancy, the number of migrations, and high costs of living. The Japanese government has made numerous efforts to address this issue. During these efforts, a predictive model is required that can be continually updated using sequential data to determine the probability of population decline or increase over a certain period. This research seeks to identify the trend direction, the likelihood of the trend occurring, and its probable duration. The method employed in this study is DTMC. Based on the calculations using this approach, it is predicted that the population will decline over the next 17 years with a probability of 0.773 and increase with a probability of 0.267, referencing annual historical data on Japan's population from 2000 to 2022.