Prediction of the Probability of Trends in Decreasing the Number of Poor People in Indonesia

Abstract

One of the goals of sustainable development (SDGs) is to increase
inclusive and sustainable economic growth, as well as decent and
comprehensive employment opportunities for all members of 
society. Productive economic growth in a region can be evaluated
based on each year's poverty rate in the specific areas. This research
aims to determine the long-term probability trends regarding the
poverty rate in Indonesia based on data from 2012 to 2023. The
method used in this research is discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC).
Based on the analysis using this approach, it is known that the
probability of a long-term decrease in the poverty rate in Indonesia is
0.697, and conversely, the probability of an increase in the poverty
rate in Indonesia is 0.303. Therefore, it can be stated that the
probability of a decrease in the number of poor people in the future is
69.7%.